{"id":8232,"date":"2022-11-14T09:00:10","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T08:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.orizoconsult.com\/company-news-fr\/what-are-prospective-and-retrospective-delays\/"},"modified":"2024-06-17T11:29:39","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T09:29:39","slug":"what-are-prospective-and-retrospective-delays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.orizoconsult.com\/fr\/insights-fr\/what-are-prospective-and-retrospective-delays\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00e9ries 101 sur l’analyse des retards \u2013 Retards prospectifs et r\u00e9trospectifs: une question de perspective"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"pexels-lucky-5374862\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cet article fait partie des S\u00e9ries 101 sur l\u2019analyse des retards, qui est \u00e9galement disponible sous le bulletin de LinkedIn.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Dans un article r\u00e9cent, nous avons expliqu\u00e9 pourquoi des experts en retards de construction peuvent \u00eatre en d\u00e9saccord sur le chemin critique. <\/a>L’une des principales raisons de ce d\u00e9saccord est le choix de la perspective temporelle: prospective, r\u00e9trospective ou contemporaine. Nous avons \u00e9galement appris qu’un retard dans une activit\u00e9 critique est directement li\u00e9 \u00e0 un retard dans la date d’ach\u00e8vement du projet.<\/i><\/p>\n

Mais comment mesurer le retard ? Dans cet article, nous examinerons les deux m\u00e9thodes de mesure des retards largement reconnues par l’industrie. <\/i><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Les S\u00e9ries 101 sur l’analyse des retards<\/h2>\n

Cet article est le premier d’une s\u00e9rie d’essais visant \u00e0 pr\u00e9senter les concepts et techniques cl\u00e9s de l’analyse des retards \u00e0 des non-sp\u00e9cialistes tels que les avocats, les juristes d’entreprise, les planificateurs, les gestionnaires de contrats ou les directeurs de projets.<\/p>\n

Le contenu de ces articles reste volontairement de haut niveau. L’\u00e9quipe d’Orizo travaille actuellement sur notre s\u00e9rie Cutting-Edge, qui s’adressera \u00e0 un public plus sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 en abordant des sujets d’analyse des retards de mani\u00e8re plus approfondie. Suivez-nous<\/a> pour en \u00eatre inform\u00e9! <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Retard prospectif \u2013 Tel que pr\u00e9vu<\/h2>\n

Le retard prospectif, souvent appel\u00e9 retard tel que pr\u00e9vu, se rapporte \u00e0 une pr\u00e9vision. Mesurer le retard d’une activit\u00e9 ou d’un projet tel qu’il est pr\u00e9vu revient g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e0 \u00e9valuer de combien il devrait \u00eatre retard\u00e9, en l’\u00e9tat actuel des connaissances. <\/p>\n

Le retard tel que pr\u00e9vu est hypoth\u00e9tique; il communique une attente subjective, qui peut varier en fonction du choix d’un ensemble d’hypoth\u00e8ses. Dans les faits, les retards pr\u00e9vus sont rarement corrects, pour la simple raison que personne ne peut pr\u00e9dire l’avenir avec pr\u00e9cision, en particulier lorsqu’il s’agit d’\u00e9valuer des syst\u00e8mes complexes tels que des projets d’infrastructure ou d’\u00e9nergie. <\/p>\n

Bien qu’hypoth\u00e9tique, ce type de retard peut n\u00e9anmoins s’av\u00e9rer tr\u00e8s utile. Lors des n\u00e9gociations entre les parties juste apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9clenchement d’un \u00e9v\u00e9nement inattendu, le retard tel que pr\u00e9vu donne de la visibilit\u00e9, permet de prendre des d\u00e9cisions et de parvenir \u00e0 des accords entre les parties prenantes du projet afin que des mesures d’att\u00e9nuation puissent \u00eatre prises \u00e0 la premi\u00e8re occasion. <\/p>\n

Exemple th\u00e9orique<\/b> \u2013 Une activit\u00e9 doit contractuellement \u00eatre achev\u00e9e le 17 mars. Le 15 mars, on pr\u00e9voit qu’elle sera termin\u00e9e le 22 mars. Le retard pr\u00e9vu est de 5 jours, comme le pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 \u00e0 la figure ci-dessous. <\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Figure 1: Mesure des retards pr\u00e9vus<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Exemple pratique<\/b> \u2013 Un projet est affect\u00e9 par des dommages physiques caus\u00e9s par une temp\u00eate exceptionnellement forte. Dans un tel sc\u00e9nario, il est clairement avantageux d’\u00e9valuer les retards pr\u00e9vus qui r\u00e9sulteront probablement<\/u> de la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d’entreprendre des r\u00e9parations: (i) l’entrepreneur est en mesure de prendre des d\u00e9cisions strat\u00e9giques telles que l’\u00e9tablissement d’un ordre de priorit\u00e9 ou d’une nouvelle s\u00e9quence pour certaines parties des travaux, et (ii) l’employeur est en mesure d’accorder une prolongation raisonnable du d\u00e9lai ou d’activer les bases d’un plan d’acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration. Les retards pr\u00e9vus permettent aux parties de collaborer efficacement et de minimiser l’impact de la temp\u00eate. <\/p>\n

Le retard prospectif est l’un des outils de gestion de projet les plus importants. Il permet d’\u00e9valuer de mani\u00e8re proactive l’impact des retards et de r\u00e9agir en cons\u00e9quence, plut\u00f4t que de subir inactivement les effets r\u00e9els avant d’adopter des mesures concr\u00e8tes. <\/p>\n

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Retard r\u00e9trospectif \u2013 Tel que r\u00e9alis\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Le retard r\u00e9trospectif, \u00e9galement souvent appel\u00e9 retard tel que r\u00e9alis\u00e9, se rapporte \u00e0 un fait tangible. Mesurer le retard tel que r\u00e9alis\u00e9 d’une activit\u00e9 ou d’un projet revient g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e0 \u00e9tablir la comparaison entre son d\u00e9roulement et le plan initial. Souvent, ce plan est le planning contractuel, \u00e9galement connu sous le nom de planning de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence: le retard tel que construit est alors une \u00e9valuation des retards contractuels r\u00e9alis\u00e9s. <\/p>\n

Le retard par rapport \u00e0 l’ex\u00e9cution est factuel; il quantifie un \u00e9cart en toute objectivit\u00e9. Une fois qu’une activit\u00e9 est achev\u00e9e, son retard r\u00e9alis\u00e9 ne change pas. <\/p>\n

La mesure des \u00e9carts permet d’affiner les pr\u00e9visions du projet, ce qui constitue la base de la mise \u00e0 jour du chemin critique contemporain<\/a>, et donc de la gestion efficace d’un projet. Cela permet \u00e9galement d’\u00e9valuer l’impact r\u00e9el d’un retard.<\/p>\n

Exemple th\u00e9orique<\/b> \u2013 Au 15 mars, une activit\u00e9 a r\u00e9alis\u00e9 50% de progr\u00e8s r\u00e9el. Elle devait contractuellement atteindre 50% au 3 mars. Le retard tel que r\u00e9alis\u00e9 est de 12 jours, comme le montre la figure ci-dessous. Notez la diff\u00e9rence avec les 5 jours de retards pr\u00e9vus mesur\u00e9s pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment: cela s’explique par le fait que le planning pr\u00e9voit que les retards seront rattrap\u00e9s \u00e0 l’avenir<\/u>, mais est-ce que cela se produira \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr? <\/p>\n

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Figure 2: Mesure du retard r\u00e9alis\u00e9<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Exemple pratique<\/b> \u2013 Si l’on se r\u00e9f\u00e8re \u00e0 la temp\u00eate exceptionnellement forte mentionn\u00e9e ci-dessus, l’\u00e9valuation du retard conforme \u00e0 l’ex\u00e9cution revient \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer l’impact r\u00e9el de la temp\u00eate, qui ne peut \u00eatre calcul\u00e9 qu’apr\u00e8s les faits. Si la partie de l’ouvrage endommag\u00e9e avait un retard de 52 jours juste avant la temp\u00eate et un retard de 73 jours une fois les r\u00e9parations termin\u00e9es, on peut conclure que la temp\u00eate a caus\u00e9 73 – 52 = 21 jours de retard conforme \u00e0 l’ex\u00e9cution. Bien entendu, cela suppose qu’aucun autre \u00e9v\u00e9nement n’a retard\u00e9 les travaux pendant la p\u00e9riode des r\u00e9parations. <\/p>\n

Une fois que l’impact r\u00e9el d’un \u00e9v\u00e9nement a \u00e9t\u00e9 mesur\u00e9, on peut alors souhaiter quantifier les dommages li\u00e9s \u00e0 cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement, par exemple en factorisant le retard tel que r\u00e9alis\u00e9 avec les frais g\u00e9n\u00e9raux quotidiens moyens au cours de la p\u00e9riode (installations du site, personnel de gestion, etc.).<\/p>\n

Le retard r\u00e9trospectif est au c\u0153ur de la quantification des dommages. Il permet de relier les pertes financi\u00e8res r\u00e9elles aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui les ont activement caus\u00e9es. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Dans un prochain article, nous verrons comment ces mesures de retard s’int\u00e8grent \u00e0 diff\u00e9rents types de chemins critiques<\/a>.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’industrie reconna\u00eet g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement deux types de retard: prospectif et r\u00e9trospectif. Dans cet article, nous examinerons les raisons pour lesquelles ces deux concepts sont n\u00e9cessaires et les besoins auxquels ils r\u00e9pondent. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[125,121,120,127,126],"class_list":["post-8232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-insights-fr","tag-analyse-de-retards","tag-construction-fr","tag-expertise-judiciaire","tag-series-101-analyse-de-retards","tag-suivi-des-projets"],"yoast_head":"\nS\u00e9ries 101 sur l'analyse des retards \u2013 Retards prospectifs et r\u00e9trospectifs: une question de perspective | Orizo Consult International<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.orizoconsult.com\/fr\/insights-fr\/what-are-prospective-and-retrospective-delays\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S\u00e9ries 101 sur l'analyse des retards \u2013 Retards prospectifs et r\u00e9trospectifs: une question de perspective | Orizo Consult International\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L'industrie reconna\u00eet g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement deux types de retard: prospectif et r\u00e9trospectif. 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